Despite persistent inflation and come to expect higher prices and shoppers aim to maximize their are adjusting their holiday spending accordingly,” said Nick Handrinos, vice chairman of Deloitte LLP, who oversees the consulting firm’s U.S. retail, wholesale and distribution and consumer products.

“We expect to see shoppers make their lists and check them twice for deals, but a return to pre-pandemic spending levels shows promise for the season overall. Retailers can expect continued store growth as

rising winter fuel costs, consumer spending will surpass pre-pandemic levels for the first time, according to Deloitte’s annual “2023 Holiday Retail Survey.” Nearly all consumers surveyed (95%) by the Wall Street consulting giant plan to partici- pate in the holiday season, up from 92% in 2022 and 88% in 2021 during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Although inflation shows signs of moderating, consumers have budgets with their favorite retailer, presenting new opportunities to build loyalty,” concluded Handrinos.

Deloitte’s highly watched holiday forecast is based on a survey of 4,330 consumers fielded between Aug. 30 and Sept. 8. Deloitte also surveyed 43 retail industry executives, of which 93% were from retailers with annual revenues of $1 billion or more, con- ducted June 23-30.

Consumers surveyed plan to spend an average of $1,652, representing a 14% year-over-year increase, though a modest four-year CAGR of 2.5% reflects a normalization of trends.

Nearly three-quarters (72%) of consumers surveyed expect higher prices and plan to navigate inflation by budgeting for fewer gifts (eight versus nine in 2022), spending more on gift cards ($300 versus $217 in 2022) and seeking out deals (66% plan to shop Black Friday — Cyber Monday versus 49% in 2022).

Nearly one-third of shoppers’ budget will be spent in the last two weeks of November, with 78% actively shopping during that period. Deloitte also noted that student loan repayments are a lump of coal for some but will likely have a minimal impact overall on the holiday season.

Another survey conducted by the influential National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade lobby,